AGP Executive Report

Hydrogen & Manufacturing: Immaks (Aksa Composites) says it has burst-tested its Type 4 composite hydrogen storage vessel beyond 1,400 bar in Ankara, aiming for UN ECE R134 certification in 2027—an export-ready push built on in-house liner and filament winding. Nuclear & Energy Supply Chains: Turkey’s Akkuyu nuclear plant is in final construction/testing stages, with Unit 1 expected to start commercial operation soon; the project reports 50%+ localization and 400+ Turkish firms involved, while a separate Turkey-Denmark deal targets domestic thorium compound production for advanced reactor fuel. Construction & Building Efficiency: Turkey plans a comprehensive building-sector transformation, including energy performance certification and digital building passports, with international cooperation discussed at a Baku roundtable. Industrial Policy: Turkey’s 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program outlines new incentives and credit tools to boost domestic production of critical technologies, plus employment measures like expanded child care and flexible work. Trade & Diplomacy: Erdoğan says COP31 in Antalya will draw 100,000+ visitors and highlights record August exports, while Turkish and Armenian business leaders met in Turkey to explore cross-border investment and industrial zone opportunities. Shipping & Security: A Russia-flagged Ro-Ro cargo vessel was attacked by drones in the Mediterranean, underscoring ongoing risks for maritime logistics.

CNC & Metalworking Expo: SMOXH Cutting Tools, based in Konya, will showcase a 7,200+ item CNC tooling programme at AMB Stuttgart 2026 (15-19 Sept), including turning, milling, drilling and boring solutions. Macroeconomic Roadmap: Türkiye unveiled its 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program, raising the 2026 inflation forecast to 28.4% while cutting growth to 3.3% and lowering tourism revenue projections amid Middle East-driven uncertainty. Defense Spending Push: Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said Türkiye plans to boost defense spending by 229% over three years, aiming for more domestic technology and higher value production. Energy Infrastructure: Türkiye’s electricity needs are driving a major investment gap, with reporting pointing to roughly $80bn in infrastructure spending through 2035. Regional Trade & Oil Routes: Iraq targets 5 mln bpd export capacity via new pipeline routes toward Fishkhabur and the Mediterranean, aiming to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Cybersecurity Watch: Kaspersky reported 75m attacks blocked in APAC in 1H 2026, including 250k ransomware incidents prevented. Agribusiness Risk: Police are investigating a factory fire in Indonesia’s Sei Mangkei SEZ that killed three workers at a Turkish-invested soap supplier.

Electricity Investment Push: Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told the Istanbul Climate Finance Summit Türkiye needs at least $80bn in electricity infrastructure investment through 2035, arguing public money won’t be enough and calling for cheaper long-term climate finance to mobilize private capital. Economic Roadmap Update: Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz unveiled Türkiye’s Medium-Term Program (2027-2029), lifting the 2026 inflation forecast to 28.4% (from 16%), trimming 2026 growth to 3.3%, and lowering tourism revenue to $65bn, citing Middle East-driven uncertainty. Nuclear Power Timing: Bayraktar said the first reactor at the Akkuyu nuclear plant is in intensive testing and is expected to go online soon, with the project aimed at cutting import dependence and supporting decarbonization. Shipping Safety & Disruptions: Türkiye is working on a plan to restore safe passage in the Black Sea as attacks threaten grain exports, while separate reports highlight ongoing maritime incidents near Istanbul, including a cargo ship sinking after a collision. US-Iran Energy Tensions: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended claims about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as OPEC+ kept October output policy unchanged amid continued disruption risks. Aviation Incident: A retired Airbus A340 caught fire at the UçakPark Aviation Science Center near Istanbul, causing extensive damage but no injuries. Industry Outreach: PAYAPRESS opened worldwide distributor applications for busbar and sheet metal machines, expanding its partner network for industrial equipment.

U.S.-Iran Pressure on Turkey’s Finance: Washington sanctioned Istanbul-based Golden Global Investment Bank and subsidiaries, alleging they helped Iran move oil revenues via Turkey into cash and gold, as part of “Operation Economic Outcast.” Maritime & Security Tensions: The U.S. said it struck three Iranian oil tankers after attacks on naval vessels, while Turkey’s navy released images of a major hull breach in the sunken Tuğberk İmamoğlu cargo ship after a collision off Istanbul. Regional Transport & Trade: Iraq proposed three ESCWA initiatives—an Iraq-Türkiye-Europe road corridor, a shared Arab digital logistics platform, and an early warning center—to keep transport and supply chains running. Energy & Grid Constraints in the Eastern Med: Cyprus’ gas potential clashes with an isolated power system that struggles to absorb more solar, highlighting how infrastructure and policy shape investment outcomes. Tech & Industry Partnerships: Synastra (Turkey) and NewBiologix (Switzerland) signed an rAAV manufacturing deal to build a stable producer cell line for a Duchenne gene therapy program. Defense & Diplomacy: Erdoğan said Türkiye is working to resolve U.S.-Iran tensions and discussed deepening ties with the UAE, including defense and economic cooperation.

Maritime Safety: Turkish Navy released underwater images showing a major hull breach in the cargo ship Tuğberk İmamoğlu after a collision off Istanbul; the wreck was found at about 710 meters depth, with 10 crew still missing and authorities yet to confirm whether the breach came from the impact or the sinking. Defense & Industry Ecosystem: Teknopark Istanbul is drafting a 2027-2031 five-year strategy to back critical technologies, shared testing/validation, and help firms scale into international markets via new partnerships. Energy & Climate Finance: Environment minister Murat Kurum said the global climate finance gap is a “chasm” (needs $7.5tn-$9tn vs. about $1.9tn available) and framed COP31 as a push to turn climate commitments into investable projects, including green industry. EU Trade Policy: Brussels is preparing broader rules to curb exports of waste to non-OECD countries, targeting strategic raw materials like aluminum scrap. Tech & Security: Broadcom issued patches for critical VMware Workstation/Fusion flaws that could let attackers with local admin privileges execute code on the host. Health & Biotech: Turkey-linked Synastra Biotechnology signed with Switzerland’s NewBiologix to develop a stable producer cell line for a Duchenne gene therapy program, aiming to de-risk manufacturing early.

US Sanctions on Turkish Bank: Washington sanctioned Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two subsidiaries, alleging they helped Iran move oil revenues and cash via Turkey, cutting the firms off from the dollar system. Aviation Costs Watch: Pegasus said jet fuel costs haven’t yet hit ticket prices, helped by hedging about 62% of exposure as the Iran war lifts crude and refining margins. AIIB Deal for Marmara Cleanup: Türkiye signed an AIIB cooperation agreement; the first phase targets about $465m for Marmara Sea environmental projects, including advanced wastewater treatment to fight “sea snot.” Digital Growth Link: Turkey’s GDP data highlighted strong expansion in information and communication activities, with digital infrastructure and services seen as a new integration channel for the Middle Corridor. Makkah Defense Pact: The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement is framed as a NATO-style security axis for Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, with implications for regional deterrence. Agriculture Health Update: Orf virus was genetically mapped in eastern Türkiye goat herds, showing notable viral diversity and a distinct isolate in Tunceli. Turkey-Georgia Tension: Tbilisi accused Ankara of pressuring Adjara, amid claims Turkish business influence is reshaping the region’s labor and leisure sectors. Tech/Manufacturing Demo: ToAuto tested its Smart Cutting Machine with makers in the US, focusing on real-world usability and after-sale support.

Sanctions Watch: The US Treasury sanctioned a Turkey-based investment bank and two subsidiaries tied to Iran, placing them on OFAC’s SDN list and cutting them off from the dollar system. Energy Policy: The IEA published its Türkiye 2026 Energy Policy Review, highlighting rising electricity demand, renewables growth to 55% by 2035, and nuclear’s expected ~10% capacity share once Akkuyu ramps up. Green Finance: Türkiye signed an AIIB cooperation deal focused first on about €400m for Marmara Sea cleanup and advanced wastewater treatment. Regional Trade & Logistics: Lebanon is working to restart rail links with Syria to connect ports to markets across Türkiye, Iraq and the Gulf. Shipping/Compliance: Albania blocked a tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet from entering Durres, amid claims it had been exporting large volumes of Russian fuel to Türkiye and others. Legal & Data Integrity: A retired Turkish Council of State judge took a challenge to TurkStat inflation figures to the ECtHR after domestic courts rejected it.

Turkey’s Economy: Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz says 2026 GDP growth will land below the official target after 2Q data showed 2.3% y/y growth, with the new Medium-Term Program (2027-2029) due soon. Defense & Industry: ASELSAN says it successfully test-fired the TOLUN deep-strike munition family from a Bayraktar AKINCI, showcasing multiple variants and effects. Maritime & Logistics: A preliminary report on the Marmara collision says watchkeeping failures and poor bridge discipline contributed to the tanker-cargo ship crash near Silivri, while search continues for missing crew. Energy & Trade Routes: Iraq is preparing studies for a 2 mln bpd Basra–Haditha pipeline network to Syria, aiming to diversify exports away from Hormuz and trucking. Geopolitics in the Aegean: Turkey’s new marine parks beyond territorial waters are being framed as illegal under UNCLOS, adding fuel to regional tensions with Greece. AI & Policy: Turkey plans to mandate AI training for civil servants and targets $10bn in AI investment. Finance: Central banks added 23 tonnes of gold in July; Turkey was among net sellers.

AI Infrastructure & Policy: Türkiye set a $10bn AI investment goal and targets 1GW of data-centre capacity by 2030, while the Industry and Technology Minister outlined an AI roadmap at the G20 that includes training 5 million people and opening public datasets to developers. Defense Industry & Exports: The Defense Ministry highlighted Baykar’s drone ecosystem and exports, and also said Eurofighter Typhoon pilot training for the Turkish Air Force starts Sept. 7. Rail Manufacturing: Winton Industries won TSI approval for its 82m³ Uacns silo wagons in aluminium and carbon-steel, clearing a key regulatory barrier for European rail freight. Shipping & Safety: Authorities detained nine crew after a collision off Istanbul sank the Tuğberk İmamoğlu; separate reports also flagged cargo-ship incidents in the Marmara. Finance & Corporate Risk: Cable maker Alves Kablo defaulted on a TRY 309.7mn sukuk payment, citing liquidity stress and failed follow-on funding. Media & Content: Warner Bros. Discovery and Doğuş Media agreed to co-finance and co-broadcast Turkish scripted series, with Tuzlu Kahve set for Star TV then HBO Max. Tech Services: Reports of Google Gemini outages hit multiple countries, including Turkey.

Black Sea Shipping Safety: Turkey is searching for 10 crew after a Turkish-flagged bulk carrier sank following a collision in the Marmara Sea near Istanbul; authorities say the sinking was rapid and rescue teams are still scouring deep waters. Aviation Disruption Risk: Ukraine warned Russian airspace is becoming unsafe due to Ukrainian drones, and reports say airlines including Pegasus and Turkish Airlines have started suspending or cutting flights to Russian airports. Energy & Industry: OCI Energy broke ground on a 260MW solar project in Texas, betting on AI-driven power demand; the project is set to start operations in 2027. Geothermal Clean Power: A Drillmec electric rig shipped from Turkey is heading to the University of York for a four-kilometre geothermal well to cut fossil fuel reliance. Defense & Shipbuilding: The US is considering frigate designs from South Korea, Japan and Turkey for a new warship class, potentially shifting more construction to allied yards. Labor & Mining: A Turkish miners’ union organiser, Başaran Aksu, has launched an open-ended hunger strike in prison. Humanitarian WASH: Türk Kızılay and Cameroon Red Cross signed a deal to expand water, hygiene and sanitation projects.

Maritime Safety: A Turkish cargo ship sank after colliding with another vessel off Istanbul in the Marmara Sea; 10 crew are missing and search-and-rescue operations are ongoing, with experts pointing to likely human error. Aviation Disruption: Pegasus canceled or turned back Russia-bound flights after Zelensky warned airlines and insurers that Russian airspace is becoming unsafe due to “drone-infested skies,” adding pressure to already strained Europe–Asia routing. Airspace Risk Map: A broader analysis argues the Russia airspace closure is now a permanent cost factor for airlines, reshaping fuel, crew planning and ticket pricing. Energy Corridors: Syria is pitching itself as an overland alternative to Hormuz, with oil truck routes and a proposed Chevron-led pipeline to Baniyas gaining attention as sanctions and Gulf conflict reshape flows. Defense & Shipbuilding: The US is considering frigate designs from South Korea, Japan and Turkey for a new warship competition, potentially allowing early builds abroad before shifting to US yards. Power Investment: EBRD approved a loan up to $207m for Enerjisa Enerji to modernize electricity distribution networks across three regions. Regional Strategy: Erdoğan said Turkey could raise SCO ties without breaking with NATO or the West, focusing on energy security and transport corridors.

Turkey-Russia Energy: President Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin used the SCO summit to reaffirm deepening Türkiye-Russia ties, spotlighting Akkuyu as a key pillar and pointing to continued joint energy work. Defence & Industry: Brussels welcomed the Turkey–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Mecca defence pact, but flagged EU defence-data exposure risks tied to defence-industrial cooperation. Shipping Risk: Turkish shipping lines Akkon Lines and Arka suspended services to all Russian ports after Black Sea attacks, underscoring mounting insurance and operational pressure on Turkish exporters. Aerospace Milestone: Turkish Aerospace Industries completed the first flight of the third Hurjet prototype, a production-representative step toward scaling jet trainer output. Trade & Compliance: A US settlement targets LED transshipment and origin misdeclaration involving Taiwan routing, a reminder for Turkish firms trading into tariff-sensitive markets. Logistics/Heavy Lift: COLI Group delivered 14 GE Vernova transformers from Türkiye to Poland for Baltica 2, highlighting port-to-road bridge and winter transport challenges. Climate Diplomacy: Turkey’s COP31 hosting plan is paired with a Fiji pre-COP event, with costs and attendance expectations drawing scrutiny.

Nuclear Expansion: President Erdoğan told Vladimir Putin in Bishkek that Turkey and Russia will pursue new nuclear power projects after Akkuyu starts operations, signaling additional plants beyond the Mediterranean site. Defense Tech Showcase: ASELSAN displayed its unmanned naval systems at TEKNOFEST Mavi Vatan 2026, including KILIÇ (autonomous underwater) and TUFAN (kamikaze surface), alongside key air and maritime components. Space Industry: Turkey signed the Artemis Accords as the 71st signatory, with plans for its first lunar mission AYAP-1 in 2027. Archaeology & Mining Heritage: Turkish archaeologists uncovered an 8,800–8,900-year-old copper-working workshop at Çayönü Tepesi, adding to evidence of early organized metal production. Maritime Safety: Search efforts continue off Kyrenia after a ferry capsized; a deep-sea team located a suspected wreck at 550 meters, with additional rescue vessels expected. Climate Policy: Turkey’s COP31 president Murat Kurum said Antalya will focus on an “implementation” action plan with concrete solutions, not more targets. Regional Water Security: At the SCO summit, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif urged that water must never be weaponised, citing the Indus Waters Treaty.

Artemis Accords: Türkiye became the 71st signatory to NASA’s Artemis framework, with Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır signing in Washington—aimed at peaceful, transparent Moon and Mars exploration and data sharing. Makkah Defence Alliance: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan moved to institutionalize their Aug. 7 pact, agreeing to set up a Riyadh secretariat and naming Pakistan’s first secretary general for a three-year term, as the alliance seeks a NATO-style “attack on all” deterrence model. Regional Air Defence Race: Israel and Greece signed the “Achilles Shield” deal (about $3.5–$3.6bn) for a multilayered air defence network, combining systems like David’s Sling, Barak MX and Spyder—an upgrade that analysts link to rising tensions involving Turkey. Turkish Defence Industry: Five Turkish firms placed in Defense News’ Top 100 list, led by Aselsan (up to 40th), with strong 2025 sales growth across the group. Maritime Security & Logistics: Somali and Turkish navies freed the hijacked MV Latuf and killed 14 pirates; separately, Turkish container operator Akkon suspended calls to Russian ports over security risks, adding pressure to Black Sea shipping flows. Energy/Trade Infrastructure: Iraq is accelerating plans for new oil pipeline links to Turkey and Syria to bypass Hormuz disruptions, targeting nearly 2.2m bpd capacity.

Makkah Defence Alliance: Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia kicked off the first Strategic Political and Defence Committee meeting in Istanbul, aiming to turn the Mecca pact into a more structured deterrence framework, including a permanent secretariat in Riyadh and expanded defence-industry cooperation such as joint technology and production. Air Defence Race: Greece signed a €3bn “Achilles Shield” deal with Israel to build a multilayer air defence network, a move that underlines how regional military procurement is intensifying alongside Turkey’s own defence-industrial push. Turkish Aerospace Milestone: TUSAŞ/TAI flew the first production-representative Hürjet jet trainer for the Turkish Air Force, with deliveries planned from 2027, strengthening Türkiye’s advanced aviation manufacturing pipeline. Economy Watch: TurkStat reported Türkiye’s 2Q GDP growth at 2.3% y/y, while economists expect August inflation to ease to 31.52% ahead of the Sept. 3 release. Logistics & Trade: DP World plans to start building a $288m dry port in Tashkent in October 2026, targeting rail-road freight, warehousing and customs capacity. Maritime Risk: A Russian-flagged cargo ship attacked near Novorossiysk drifted and ran aground on a Turkish beach, adding to Black Sea shipping security concerns.

Black Sea Shipping Risk: Turkish shipowners warn Ukraine-linked attacks are forcing vessels out of service and pushing insurance and operating costs up, raising bankruptcy fears for merchant fleets. Mecca Pact in Motion: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan kick off the first Strategic Political and Defence Committee meeting in Istanbul, with ministers and top commanders set to discuss defense coordination, interoperability and joint production. SCO Summit Watch: Erdogan is expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek alongside Putin and Xi, as leaders weigh regional security and trade/energy cooperation. Iran Pressure Escalates: The US strikes Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz and signals further sanctions on banks tied to Iran transactions, intensifying pressure on regional energy and shipping routes. Tech & Consumer Demand: Middle East smartphone shipments excluding Turkey fell 19% y/y as higher prices and uncertainty push buyers toward premium devices. Aegean Arms Race: Greece is set to sign a major air-defense deal with Israel amid rising Greek-Turkish tensions and drone incidents near disputed islands.