AGP Executive Report

Talent Pipeline: Türkiye’s graduate brain-drain rate reached 2.2% in 2025, its highest since 2015. The rate was 4.8% among engineering, manufacturing and construction graduates, highlighting a challenge for industrial employers. Mining Safety: A gas explosion at a coal mine in Zonguldak killed three workers and injured five. Canada Partnership: Canada and Türkiye launched a strategic partnership, with free-trade talks set to begin in November and cooperation planned in energy, defence and supply chains. The countries aim to raise annual trade to $10 billion, while Canadian firms are also in the running for Türkiye’s nuclear plant project. Green Investment: Istanbul hosted a UNDP-backed summit ahead of COP31, with calls to speed up green investment. Transport Links: Türkiye designated railways a priority sector, and a new high-speed line has opened between Istanbul and the Bulgarian border.

Canada–Türkiye Business: Mark Carney and President Erdoğan launched a strategic partnership and free-trade talks, with a $10 billion trade target and plans to deepen energy and defence ties. Canada’s AtkinsRéalis is also a contender for Türkiye’s next nuclear plant. Automotive: Togg unveiled an amber-themed special edition of its T10F electric fastback as it prepares a lower-cost SUV for 2027. Energy & Shipping: Alkagesta won Turkish approval to buy marine-fuel distributor Energy Petrol, adding eight bunkering vessels and tank capacity to its Eastern Mediterranean operations. Türkiye is also set to receive some Russian diesel under a US-Russia supply deal. Economic Outlook: The central bank cut its policy rate by one percentage point to 36%, its first reduction in nine months. S&P says disinflation remains on track but faces an election test; Goldman Sachs warned that reserve losses could deepen. Agriculture: Turkish agricultural exports reached a record $27.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026.

Canada-Türkiye Trade: The countries launched a strategic partnership covering energy, defence and investment, with free-trade talks due to begin in November and a long-term goal of lifting annual trade to $10 billion. Defence Industry: Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia agreed to expand joint production, research and development, and military training. Aerospace: Türkiye plans to invest more than $2 billion in space and aviation over the next three years. Exports: Turkish seafood sales to China surged 190% after new trade protocols, led by salmon and tuna. Industrial Capacity: Türkiye launched its first domestically designed and built suction dredger, while a domestic ultrasound manufacturing facility is also planned. Business Climate: The central bank cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 36%, its first reduction since January, as consumer confidence weakened. Energy Investment: Three Turkish energy firms were among 10 groups prequalified to bid for Pakistan’s Islamabad electricity distributor.

Canada Partnership: Türkiye and Canada elevated ties to a strategic partnership, signed cooperation deals in energy, defence and air transport, and launched free-trade talks. The two sides aim to raise annual trade from about $3 billion to $10 billion. Investment Push: Türkiye plans to invest more than $2 billion in space and aviation over three years, while new wind and solar tenders are expected to attract another $2 billion. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 36%, its first reduction in nine months, as October consumer confidence weakened. Export Growth: Turkish seafood sales to China jumped 190% in January–September, with salmon and tuna leading the gains after new trade protocols eased market access.

Medical Manufacturing: Türkiye plans to build an ultrasound production facility with at least 71% local content, aiming to cut imports and expand domestic expertise. Aviation and Space: Ankara plans to invest about $2 billion in the sector over three years, with funding for space research, testing and homegrown technologies. Defence Industry: Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed the Badr pact to pursue joint production, research and training, opening new avenues for industrial cooperation. Clean Energy: Türkiye’s next wind and solar tenders are expected to attract $2 billion in investment. Trade and Investment: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit is set to deepen cooperation with Türkiye in defence, energy and trade. Business Conditions: Manufacturing capacity utilisation rose in October, while business confidence declined.

Defense Manufacturing: Türkiye, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed the Badr MoU in Doha to expand defense production, research and training, with joint production and closer supply chains among the goals. Türkiye’s proposed 2027 arms procurement budget is also up nearly 230%. Canada Ties: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Türkiye is set to advance trade, energy and defense cooperation, including free-trade talks. Clean Energy: Türkiye’s new wind and solar tenders are expected to attract $2 billion, while the country targets renewables at 70% of energy needs by 2040 and plans $80 billion in grid investment by 2035. Technology Investment: Türkiye announced a $4.1 billion data-center campus in Ankara. Auto Industry: Toyota is urging the EU to include Türkiye in its planned “Made in Europe” rules, warning that excluding long-standing partners could deter investment.

Energy Transition: Renewables made up 62.9% of Türkiye’s installed power capacity by August, and the government aims to meet about 70% of energy needs from renewables by 2040. It also plans $80 billion in grid investment by 2035. Space and Advanced Manufacturing: Fergani placed its sixth test satellite in orbit, using domestically developed components and an AI-powered computer. Automotive: Registered electric cars rose 53.2% year on year to 472,157 in August, with domestic brand Togg helping drive uptake. Transport: Türkiye’s rail network has expanded to 13,919 kilometres, including 2,251 kilometres of high-speed lines. Agriculture: Exports reached a record $27.1 billion in the first nine months. Defence Technology: HAVELSAN demonstrated an unmanned vessel launching an armed drone to strike a target.

Agricultural Exports: Türkiye’s farm exports hit a record $27.1 billion in the first nine months, up 4.4% year on year; fresh produce led the gains. Energy Investment: Türkiye plans $80 billion for power transmission and distribution by 2035, as it targets renewables for 70% of energy needs by 2040. But S&P warns a prolonged energy shock could add up to seven percentage points to inflation this year. Digital Infrastructure: A $4.1 billion data-centre complex is planned for Ankara, part of a broader push to build the country’s digital capacity. Defence Industry: The proposed 2027 budget lifts platform procurement spending by 229%; Türkiye is also due to discuss defence and energy cooperation with Canada, alongside efforts to advance free-trade talks. Auto Manufacturing: Ankara is pressing for Turkish automakers to be included in the EU’s “Made in Europe” industrial rules. Trade Routes: Russian diesel tankers are heading to Türkiye as exports resume, while renewed attacks on Black Sea shipping raise risks for regional cargo routes.

Digital Infrastructure: Türkiye’s data-centre push advanced with a 22-megawatt project and a reported $4.1 billion Ankara complex, supporting its ambition to become a regional technology hub. Energy Supply: Ankara expects a share of Russian diesel under a US-Russia supply arrangement, as Middle East disruptions tighten fuel availability. Trade and Logistics: The Development Road linking Iraq, Türkiye and Europe could generate $55 billion for Türkiye over a decade, according to the transport minister; the proposed $17–20 billion corridor is designed to expand regional freight links. Exports: Türkiye’s exports to BRICS countries topped $18.2 billion in January–September, while fresh vegetable exports rose 10% to $822.7 million. Aerospace and Defence: Türkiye has signed $15 billion in new defence contracts so far this year and expects the total to reach $20 billion; Turkish Aerospace is also preparing an expanded ANKA III production line.

Digital Investment: Türkiye broke ground on a joint Rönesans Holding–Digital Realty data center in Ankara, with total investment expected to reach $4.1 billion once all phases are complete. Energy: The Osman Gazi floating gas platform is heading to the Black Sea as Türkiye targets a doubling of gas flows by 2027; Ankara also expects to receive Russian diesel under a US-Russia supply deal. Manufacturing and Trade: Türkiye is urging the EU to include it in its “Made in Europe” rules, as proposed requirements could disadvantage Turkish-made vehicles and components. Turkish exports to BRICS countries reached $18.2 billion in January–September. Business Conditions: 93,095 small businesses closed in the first nine months, up 11.8% year on year. Fitch also warned that leasing and factoring firms face rising credit risks and weaker margins amid high funding costs. Defence Industry: Türkiye has signed $15 billion in defence contracts so far this year, with the sector expecting new deals to reach $20 billion by year-end.

Energy: Türkiye sent its first floating gas-production platform, Osman Gazi, to the Black Sea, aiming to nearly double output at the Sakarya field to 20 million cubic metres a day. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar also said Türkiye expects a share of Russian diesel under the US-Russia supply deal. Defence Industry: Turkish defence companies have signed $15 billion in contracts so far this year, with the sector targeting $20 billion by year-end. Infrastructure: Türkiye plans to spend more than $20 billion on transportation next year. Exports: Turkish automotive-parts exports topped $12 billion, while carpet exports exceeded $2 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Shipping: Rising drone attacks in the Black Sea are increasing risks for commercial vessels and regional trade routes.

Energy Security: Türkiye will receive part of the Russian diesel supplied under a US-Russia arrangement, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said. The first floating gas platform, Osman Gazi, is also heading to the Black Sea, where it is expected to nearly double output from the Sakarya field to 20 million cubic metres a day. Infrastructure Spending: Türkiye plans to allocate more than $20 billion to transport and logistics in 2027, with railways receiving the largest share. Defence Industry: New defence contracts have reached $15 billion this year, and officials expect the total to hit $20 billion by year-end. Exports: Turkish carpet exports generated $2.017 billion in the first nine months of 2026, despite pressure from raw-material and logistics costs. Clean Energy: COP31 could help Türkiye showcase its geothermal expertise and attract investment, the International Geothermal Association’s chief said.

Energy: Türkiye is targeting oil output of 550,000 barrels a day by 2028, up from about 300,000, as the Osman Gazi production platform heads to the Sakarya field. Ankara says the platform will help double Black Sea gas output by 2027. Aviation: Turkish Airlines and CFM signed an agreement covering more than 600 LEAP-1B engines and services, a major long-term commitment for the carrier. Trade: Türkiye’s exports to BRICS topped $18.2 billion in January–September, while EU-Türkiye trade reached $233 billion as customs union talks advanced. Auto-parts exports exceeded $12 billion, and fresh-fruit export value rose 48%. New Markets: Türkiye and Cambodia renewed their ambition to reach $1 billion in bilateral trade and discussed cooperation in investment, energy and defense.

Energy: Türkiye’s Osman Gazi platform is heading to the Black Sea, with gas output expected to double to 20 million cubic metres a day in 2027. Ankara also aims to lift oil production to 550,000 barrels a day by 2028, on the way to 1 million. Aviation: Turkish Airlines and CFM signed an MoU covering more than 300 LEAP-1B engines and services for over 600 engines, including support for a planned maintenance facility in Türkiye. Industrial Investment: A $2.5 billion Turkish-Libyan iron project near Benghazi aims to produce more than 8 million tonnes of direct-reduced iron annually, with operations targeted for 2028. Trade: Türkiye-EU trade reached a record $233 billion as talks on updating the Customs Union advanced; exports to BRICS countries topped $18.2 billion in January–September.

Higher-Value Exports: Türkiye’s average export value reached $1.73 per kilogram in September, with defence exports averaging $61.50, as the government pushes innovation and higher-value production. Aviation and Defence: Turkish Airlines and CFM signed an agreement covering more than 600 LEAP-1B engines. Türkiye also reported over $10 billion in defence and aerospace exports in 2025 and proposed a 229% increase in 2027 defence-equipment procurement allocations. Energy: Wind and solar now account for a third of installed generating capacity. A new Black Sea production platform is expected to double Sakarya gas output, while Akkuyu’s first reactor is targeted for initial start-up by year-end. Trade: Turkish exports to BRICS countries topped $18.2 billion in January–September, and Ankara is urging the EU to include Türkiye in its “Made in Europe” plan.

Energy: Rosatom says Akkuyu’s first reactor is on track for initial nuclear start-up by year-end, while Türkiye plans to deploy its first Black Sea gas platform to double offshore output. Ankara also discussed LNG cooperation with Russia’s Novatek. Defence Industry: The 2027 budget raises weapons and equipment procurement allocations by 229%; Turkish Aerospace is expanding production of its Anka-3 drone. Trade: Turkish exports to BRICS countries reached $18.2 billion in January–September. Ankara is also urging the EU to include Türkiye in its “Made in Europe” rules, as a proposed France-Germany car deal puts local production and jobs in focus. Business Outlook: The government forecasts 4.2% growth in 2027, with exports and investment among its priorities. Infrastructure: Flooding in İstanbul damaged around 300 businesses, highlighting the exposure of urban commerce to extreme weather.